An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling

Mathematical modelling is increasingly being applied to interpret and predict the dynamics and control of infectious diseases. Applications include predicting the impact of vaccination strategies against common infections and determining optimal control strategies against HIV and malaria. Though many public health and infectious disease researchers are aware that mathematical modelling would be of use to them, few have had any formal training in this area. As a result, they are ill-equipped either to use models or to even critically evaluate the modelling work of other researchers. Though several texts on the mathematical modelling of infectious disease transmission have been published to date, they have either been targeted at modellers, or they have illustrated how mathematical equations have informed the dynamics and control of infectious diseases without explaining how these equations might be set up and solved.
This book is designed to fill this gap. By reading the book and completing the accompanying exercises, readers will understand the basic methods for setting up mathematical models and how and where models can be applied. They will also gain an improved understanding of the factors which influence the patterns and trends in infectious diseases. This book will be of interest to epidemiologists, public health researchers, policy makers, veterinary scientists, medical statisticians and infectious disease researchers.