Voter Sophistication and Coalition Politics: How Ideological Awareness Shapes Government Formation in Multiparty Democracies

When negotiating the formation of governments in multiparty democracies, do party leaders consistently consider the policy preferences of their voters? Voter Sophistication and Coalition Politics introduces a theoretical framework that places voters-particularly their ideological sophistication-at the heart of coalition bargaining. It challenges existing approaches that portray elite bargaining as isolated from voter reactions, demonstrates that parties anticipate and respond to potential voter backlash during government formation, and traces the impact of these anticipations on government participation, the choice of coalition partners, and expected policy consequences.

The book develops a unified empirical model of coalition negotiations, bridging two traditionally separate approaches in the study of government formation: one focused on coalition attributes and the other on party characteristics. This innovative framework sheds light on how party leaders navigate the dual pressures of coalition dynamics and voter expectations. By combining institutional analysis with behavioral insights, it provides new tools to explore the relationship between legislative bargaining, elite strategies, voter behavior, and democratic responsiveness.

Based on an analysis of more than a thousand party bargaining decisions across 16 parliamentary democracies over the past 50 years, the book reveals that voter ideological sophistication profoundly shapes coalition outcomes. By offering a new perspective on the alignment-or misalignment-between coalition negotiations and voter expectations, this book deepens our understanding of democratic representation in multiparty systems.

Comparative Politics is a series for researchers, teachers, and students of political science that deals with contemporary government and politics. Global in scope, books in the series are characterized by a stress on comparative analysis and strong methodological rigour. The series is published in association with the European Consortium for Political Research. For more information visit: www.ecprnet.eu .

The series is edited by Nicole Bolleyer, Chair of Comparative Political Science, Geschwister Scholl Institut, LMU Munich and Jonathan Slapin, Professor of Political Institutions and European Politics, Department of Political Science, University of Zurich.

Lanny W. Martin, Professor of Political Science, Bocconi University, Georg Vanberg, Ernestine Friedl Distinguished Professor, Duke University

Lanny W. Martin is a Full Professor of Political Science at Bocconi University and is a Research Fellow at the Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy and at the Institute for European Policymaking. His research focuses on comparative political institutions, legislative politics, political economy, and coalition government. His work has been awarded several disciplinary prizes and has appeared in numerous high-impact outlets, including the American Journal of Political Science, the American Political Science Review, the Journal of Politics, and Political Analysis.

Georg Vanberg is the Ernestine Friedl Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Duke University. His research focuses on political institutions, including coalition governance and legislative and judicial politics. His work has received multiple disciplinary prizes and has appeared in such outlets as the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, and the Journal of Politics, among others.