Nuclear Weapons Proliferation in the Next Decade

The intensification of the Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises has created new fears that deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and other regions will lead additional countries to seek their own nuclear arsenals in the years to come.

This special issue examines the factors that are likely to shape nuclear weapons proliferation over the next decade. The internationally recognized authors of this issue, many of whom are prominent scholars and others of whom have held influential governmental positions with responsibility for countering nuclear proliferation, bring to light the conditions and events that might drive new countries to pursue nuclear weapons; the indicators and cautionary signs that can provide early warning that a country is interested in building nuclear bombs; and the policy and military measures that can be adopted to prevent or at least dissuade new proliferators. The introductory chapter develops a novel analytical approach focusing on the role of nuclear myths and mythmakers and the subsequent chapters draw on this approach to help analysts better understand and policy makers better manage nuclear proliferation over the next ten years.

Peter R. Lavoy is the National Intelligence Officer for South Asia in the U.S. National Intelligence Council. This book was prepared when he was Director of the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School.