Predicting Cost and Schedule Growth for Military and Civil Space Systems

This research seeks to identify factors contributing to military and civil space system cost and schedule growth, quantify the relative impact of these factors, and establishing a set of models for predicting cost and schedule growth. The analysis consists of logistic and multiple regression to assess 21 Department of Defense and 71 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) space programs. The study finds that, for military spaces systems, communications missions, ground equipment, firm-fixed price contracts, and increased program manager tenure are all predictive of lower cost growth. For NASA space programs, the study finds that smaller programs (by total cost), more massive spacecraft, microgravity missions, and space physics missions are predictive of higher cost growth. For schedule growth of NASA programs, the study finds that larger programs and those developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Northrop Grumman, or international developers are predictive of increased schedule growth, whereas those programs developed by Johns Hopkins University are predictive of reduced schedule growth.

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