Big Brother or Big Bully? Future Scenarios of the Role of the United States on the Geopolitical Stage

The geopolitical evolution of the US will play a pivotal role as the world struggles to address the effects of globalization on the complex 21st Century security environment. In this environment, if America continues with its largely unilateral, militarily focused strategy to spread democracy, prosperity, and defend our national interests, will the world of 2020 be a more peaceful, secure place? As the world’s only superpower, does the US risk bankrupting its international legitimacy as we attempt to impose our will on all who oppose our interests, or do we become more inclusive and less belligerent in our rhetoric? This paper uses the scenarios-based future planning methodology described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World to explore future scenarios that might be faced by the US on the geopolitical stage, discussing possible implications for our evolving national security strategy.

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