The Polls Weren’t Wrong

Interpreting poll data as a prediction of election outcomes is a practice as old as the field, rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of what poll data means.

By first understanding how polls work at a fundamental level, this book gives readers the ability to discern flaws in the current methods. Then, through specific political examples from both the United States and the United Kingdom, it is shown how polls famously derided as ＂wrong＂ were, in fact, accurate. While polls are not always accurate, the reasons we can and can’t (rightly) call them ＂wrong＂ are explained in this book.

This book will equip readers with the tools to navigate the mismatch of expectations. It is not intended to replace more technical applications of statistics but is accessible to anyone interested in learning more about how poll data should be understood, compared to how it’s currently misunderstood.

Carl Allen is a researcher and analyst of sports and political data. His background includes quantitative analysis for University of Louisville Baseball, as well as MLB data for Stats Perform. Currently, Carl is the owner of Triple Digit Speed Pitch, a company that partners with schools and youth sports organizations for sports-themed fundraising events in Ohio. Carl’s current research interests include inefficiencies in political betting markets, and improving polling methods. When he’s not analyzing political data, Carl teaches English to adults, and he still finds time for MLB and NFL analysis. Carl received his BS from the University of Louisville in 2012 (Exercise Physiology, Spanish) and MS in 2013 (Sport Administration). You can find Carl on social media and Substack: @RealCarlAllen.