Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics: A Mixed Methods Approach

This book introduces the near crisis phase of conflict and escalation.

These time-sensitive disputes between states, and even with violent non-state actors, do not involve significant risk of military escalation, at least in the moment. Investigating how and why some near crises escalate, while others do not, requires an explanation of the different dynamics of international disputes and the policy tools that states and international institutions can employ. We ask an expanded set of questions about specific cases and general patterns of conflict behavior, such as: why did Israeli leaders respond to Hezbollah’s 2006 cross-border raid with escalation, resulting in the Second Lebanon War, while in previous instances the Israelis limited their retaliation? Why didn’t the 2015 Iranian Ballistic Missile Test or the 1995 Norwegian Black Brant Missile Launch escalate, while the 2009 North Korea Missile Movement and the 1995 Taiwan Straits dispute tipped into a full-blown crisis, and why did the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict escalate from near crisis to war? We use primary sources and newly created data on near crises to answer these questions and others. The overall conclusion is that an ounce of prevention at the near crisis phase is worth a pound of cure in averting a full-blown crisis or war.

This book will be of great interest to students of security studies, conflict studies, foreign policy, and international relations.

Victor Asal is Director of the Center for Policy Research and Professor of Political Science at the University at Albany, USA.

Kyle Beardsley is Professor of Political Science at Duke University, USA, the Director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, and the co-Director of the International Crisis Behavior Data Project.

Edward A. Gonzalez is an instructor of political science at Compton College, USA. He has a PhD from the University of Southern California.

Patrick James is Dean’s Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of Southern California, USA. He is the author of over 30 books, along with more than 180 articles and chapters, on International Relations

Steven E. Lobell is Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Utah, USA. He served as the PI for ＂Power Projection, Deterrence Strategies, and Escalation Dynamics in an Era of Challenging Near Peers, Rogue States, and Terrorist and Insurgent Organizations,＂ Minerva Research Initiative and Office of Naval Research.

Norrin M. Ripsman is Monroe J. Rathbone Distinguished Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University, USA.

Scott Silverstone is Professor of International Relations at the United States Military Academy at West Point. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Pennsylvania and is the author of three books.