The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island-Nation at the Centre of the New Cold War

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked the world and overturned assumptions that large-scale conventional war was inconceivable in the twenty-first century. On the other side of the planet, democratic Taiwan faces the rising threat of a military takeover by China a conflict whose impact on the international community would be catastrophic.

Renowned Taiwan expert and former intelligence officer J. Michael Cole explains how this Pacific nation has become a tinderbox that could ignite a full-scale global conflict. Drawing on unparalleled access to Taiwanese government sources and two decades of on-the-ground observation, he explores the root causes of the conflict between Taiwan and China - from the identity politics that make ＂peaceful unification＂ inconceivable, to the rise of Xi Jinping, the most powerful and authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. With in-depth analysis of how the war in Europe is influencing preparations by Beijing, Taipei, and Washington for a potential cross-Strait confrontation, The Taiwan Tinderbox is an impassioned plea for the defense of Taiwan as a priority for the international community and the future of democracy.

J. Michael Cole is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C., the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, Canada, and the Taiwan Hub at the University of Nottingham, UK. He is also a Research Fellow and Executive Editor with the Prospect Foundation in Taiwan, and a strategic consultant for various governments and the private sector. Until May 2024, he was the Senior Advisor on Countering Foreign Authoritarian Influence (CFAI) with the International Republican Institute (IRI).