Predicting Pretrial Failure: How Prior Criminal Record Outperforms Offense Severity

What if one of the core assumptions guiding America’s bail system is wrong?

For decades, courts have relied on the seriousness of the current charge as the foundation of pretrial decisions. Predicting Pretrial Failure challenges that belief. Using the State Court Processing Statistics dataset and decades of empirical work, the book shows that prior criminal record-especially prior convictions-is a far stronger and more consistent predictor of pretrial failure than offense severity.

Clear and deeply researched, this book traces the evolution of bail from its Anglo-Saxon roots to contemporary constitutional battles, revealing how cash bail fuels mass detention, racial inequality, coerced guilty pleas, and long-term socioeconomic harm. Even short periods in jail disrupt employment, mental health, family stability, and case outcomes, while doing little to improve public safety.

Blending statistical evidence, legal analysis, and policy insight, Predicting Pretrial Failure presents a compelling blueprint for a pretrial system grounded in empirical accuracy rather than wealth or tradition. Essential reading for scholars, practitioners, and reformers seeking to align pretrial justice with both evidence and constitutional principles.