Navigating Complexity in Big History: Exploring Periodization Across Cosmic and Biosocial Dimensions

This book explores periodization in Big History against the background of complexity growth across the Universe, on our planet, and in biological, social, and cultural systems. It traces the accelerating rise in complexity throughout history and the major historical transformations involved in the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. It draws on concepts from physics and evolutionary biology to offer potential models of the underlying mechanisms driving this acceleration, along with potential clues to how it might end.

In the editors’ introduction (Chapter 1), the effort to periodize is placed within the historical context along with considerations from complexity science. Subsequent chapters explore various aspects of periodization and complexity by (a) identifying symmetrical cosmic and biosocial trends, (b) testing rigor and criteria for evaluating periodization, (c) attempting to integrate different approaches through multiple perspectives, (d) proposing different strategies for determining geometric patterns in terrestrial bio-social evolution, and (e) applying the traditional threshold model to gain insights into possible future pathways. A concluding chapter identifies commonalities, research gaps, and possible approaches to integration as the current state of the world system rapidly evolves, while also offering a deeper understanding of complexity dynamics and historical processes. Each chapter includes an extensive bibliography, allowing a deeper and more detailed examination of the issues covered.

David J. Lepoire has a Ph.D. in computer science from DePaul University in Chicago, USA, and a B.S. in physics from California Institute of Technology, USA. He has worked in environmental and energy areas for many governmental agencies over the past 25 years.

Leonid E. Grinin is Russian Sociologist, Political Anthropologist, Economist, and Scholar of historical trends and future studies. He is Senior Research Professor at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and Leading Research Fellow of the Laboratory for Destabilization Risk Monitoring of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. He is Director of the Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Research Professor and Director of the Volgograd Center for Social Research. He is Vice-President of the International Kondratieff Fund and Member of the International Big History Association.

Andrey V. Korotayev is Director of the Center for Stability and Risks Analysis at the HSE University in Moscow, Russia. He is also Senior Research Professor at the Institute of Oriental Studies and Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, as well as at the Faculty of Global Studies of the Lomonosov Moscow State University and the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.