The Future of the Occupation of the Palestinian Territories After Gaza: Scenarios, Stakeholders and ’Solutions’

This open access book outlines four scenarios for the future of Israeli occupation of the Palestinian Territories as a broad canvas on which the interests, roles and perspectives of the key stakeholders involved in occupation are subsequently painted. An indirect result of 58 years of Israeli occupation of the Palestinian Territories, the Hamas attack on Israel of 7 October 2023 and the ensuing Israeli military campaign have greatly worsened Palestinian security in the short term, and Israeli security in the long term. Durable prospects for achieving reconciliation and peace are now shrouded in uncertainty, as political forces and views on both sides are likely to polarize and radicalize even further. October 7 and its aftermath have also introduced new uncertainties about the future nature of Israeli annexation and the modalities as well as extent of Palestinian resistance. Old frames have lost much of their validity, such as the Oslo agreements or even the logic underpinning security cooperation between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli military.

The book aims to improve our understanding of the post-October 7 context of occupation and the initiatives required to end it in the future. Ultimately, the book’s intention is to shake up complacent policies and debates about the occupation of the Palestinian Territories by providing a more realistic basis for both reflection and action.

While short-form analysis (e.g. blogs, essays and briefs) of October 7 and the ensuing events have proliferated, there has been little to no comprehensive analysis of the significance of these events for the future of occupation. Using the method of scenario planning to develop an analytical baseline, the added value of this book is that it offers a multi-dimensional consideration of this question both through the range of stakeholders it covers and the variety of its authors with respect to their research focus and perspective.

Erwin van Veen is Senior Research Fellow at Clingendael’s Conflict Research Unit, The Netherlands. He leads its Middle East research program that helps mitigate violent conflict by providing high-quality and insightful strategic advice. His direct area of expertise is the relationships between political order, protest and violence in countries like Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Syria and Turkey. He is Author of the book ’Armed organizations and political elites in civil wars: Pathways to power in Syria and Iraq’ (Routledge, 2024).