Evolution of Scenario Planning: Theory and Practice from Disorder to Order

Scenario planning is a long and well-established approach to help leaders create novel insights and challenge what they know of the world to influence future action. But as the world becomes increasingly unpredictable, leaders must question the traditional mode of analysing the contextual environment and adopt new capabilities to embrace change while they redefine and reframe their organisation for the future. The Evolution of Scenario Planning explores the pervasive nature of change. It provides a contemporary approach to using scenarios as strategic conversation to embrace experiences - past and present - to create novel understanding and insights. The book uses case studies and practical examples to guide facilitators in applying the scenario process in their organisation. Leaders, senior managers, consultants and academics will learn how to engage with scenarios as a central element of strategy and better understand their role in strategic leadership. They will also gain insight into the skills and capabilities revealed during the process of strategic conversation, where ambiguity and equivocality is a natural feature of such conversation. The Evolution of Scenario Planning makes a compelling case for using scenarios to enable leaders to develop foresight and attunement to grasp the ongoing dynamic of their uncertain and ambiguous world.

George Burt is a highly accomplished academic with over 30 years of experience teaching, researching, and consulting on the role and impact of scenario planning. He has worked with a diverse range of organisations such as Shell Global Solutions, World Bank, Petronas, PayPal, Church of Scotland, and many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). From these diverse settings and experiences, George has developed novel and innovative ideas about the role of scenario planning. The book reflects these ideas and offers a clear explanation of scenarios as a strategic conversation to underpin foresight in the here-and-now, which redefines understanding of the organisation.