由於國內土地資源有限，且軌道系統具有高效率、低污染、對環境衝擊較小之特性，因此近年來政府的交通建設政策，已從以公路為主逐漸走向以軌道為主。然而軌道建設的投資金額相當龐大，無論是新建或改善計畫，均需掌握其對軌道容量的影響，計畫的投資才能恰如其分。有鑑於此，本所於民國95年開始推動「運輸系統容量分析暨應用研究─軌道系統」4年期之計畫。在本年度的研究中，蒐集臺鐵列車實際運行資料進行可靠度分析，分別發展了可靠度迴歸模式和可靠度模擬模式，並開發相關的分析程式。此外，回顧都會捷運系統容量分析的文獻，考量中間站、折返站和銜接點等不同空間參考點，建構運轉時隔分析模式。在臺鐵可靠度模擬模式部分，模式中考量了列車流量、車種組成、運轉時間以及號誌時距等因素，模擬計算列車的平均延滯時間，且經由臺鐵實際資料進行驗證後，確定該模式能反映實際列車運行延滯的現象。另在都市捷運系統容量分析部分，本研究發展了運轉時隔泛用分析模式，可依個別系統特性不同，用適當的參數來計算，此外除了中間站外，亦針對折返點和銜接點發展其號誌安全時距計算公式。 Since land resources in Taiwan are quite limited, and rail transportation is more efficient, and has less environmental impact, the government’s transportation policy has focused on railways in place of highways over recent years. However, the construction of railway systems requires enormous capital expenditure. Thus, the impact on rail capacity for a new proposed or an improved railway project will need to be investigated so that the investment is appropriate. In consideration of this, the Institute of Transportation (IOT) has been undertaking a four-year project – “Capacity Analysis of Rail Transportation Systems and Its Applications” since 2006. In this year, the study collects train operating datum from TRA to analyze reliability, and develops the reliability regression model, simulation model, and software. Moreover, the study reviews literatures on capacity models for urban transit systems and considers different space reference points including intermediate stations, turnbacks, and junctions to develop analytic models for estimating operation headways.
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