The China-U.S. Trade War and Future Economic Relations

The relation between China and the United States is arguably the most important bilateral relation in the world today. The U.S. and China are respectively the largest and the second largest economies in the world. They are also respectively the largest and the second largest trading nations in the world as well as each other’s most important trading partner. If China and the U.S. work together as partners towards a common goal, many things are possible. However, there exist significant friction and potential conflict in their economic relations. The large and persistent U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is one of the problems.

It is essential to know the true state of the China-U.S. trade balance before effective solutions can be devised to narrow the trade surplus or deficit. The impacts and potential impacts of the 2018 trade war between China and the U.S. on the two economies are analysed and discussed. The longterm forces that underlie the economic relations between the two countries beyond the 2018 trade war are examined. In this connection, how a “new type of major-power relation” between the two countries can help to keep the competition friendly and avert a war between them is explored.

作者簡介：

Professor Lawrence J. Lau received his B.S. degree (with Great Distinction) in Physics from Stanford University in 1964 and his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley in 1966 and 1969 respectively. He joined the faculty of the Department of Economics at Stanford University in 1966, becoming Professor of Economics in 1976 and the first Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development at Stanford University in 1992. From 1992 to 1996, he served as a Co-Director of the Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, and from 1997 to 1999, as the Director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He became Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, Emeritus, upon his retirement from Stanford University in 2006. From 2004 to 2010, Professor Lau served as Vice-Chancellor (President) of The Chinese University of Hong Kong. Since 2007, Professor Lau has been serving as Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. From September 2010 to September 2014, he served as Chairman of CIC International (Hong Kong) Co., Limited.