The Odds of War A calculus of probabilities: Part I General introduction

The first part of the six-part study on the origins of wars presents the system and methodology of applied history.
64 parameters are discussed that either lead to wars or have a peacekeeping effect.
This is followed by a presentation of the calculation of the nominal and real expected value, which assigns a percentage probability to each war based on its specific parameters.
Past wars can be explained using the model presented, and future wars can be predicted.