antrup

This book explores a simple thesis: Not only does technology govern how much wealth societies can generate but also how it gets distributed between elites and commoners - and it determines what social structures prevail. Most of human recorded history is about agrarian societies with a hereditary elite and commoners squeezed to just so survive. Manufacturing brought genuine democracy, mass education and shared prosperity. Computers and artificial intelligence will push commoners into low level service jobs and bring societies back closer to agrarian times.

It turns out that perpetual increases in living standards are not a God-given right, our hunter-gatherer-turned-peasant forebears could attest to that. And in fact, human rights and democracy are not sacrosanct either and will be retired. Or perhaps rather decay into theatrics much like European monarchies did in the 20th century. We will live either in futuristic merchant republics or in neo-autocratic regimes. The anonymity of the big city will turn out to be a historical anomaly. And people’s religious beliefs will change again, away from materialistic self-determination to a greater role of mysticism and ＂AI gurus＂. Assets and their prices may come to resemble the art market more than the erstwhile American frontier. And the big open questions are whether elites are going to be more benign and benevolent than in the past, under the guidance of their ＂AI consiglieri＂, and whether they will retain control or lose it to the machines.