proof: the art and science of certainty

An award-winning mathematician--he ＂made me smile and made me feel clever＂ (Peter Frankopan)--shows how we prove what’s true, and what to do when we can’t

How do we establish what we believe? And how can we be certain that what we believe is true? And how do we convince other people that it is true? For thousands of years, from the ancient Greeks to the Arabic golden age to the modern world, science has used different methods--logical, empirical, intuitive, and more--to separate fact from fiction. But it all had the same goal: find perfect evidence and be rewarded with universal truth.

As mathematician Adam Kucharski shows, however, there is far more to proof than axioms, theories, and laws: when demonstrating that a new medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone’s guilt, or deciding whether you trust a self-driving car, the weighing up of evidence is far from simple. To discover proof, we must reach into a thicket of errors and biases and embrace uncertainty--and never more so than when existing methods fail.

Spanning mathematics, science, politics, philosophy, and economics, this book offers the ultimate exploration of how we can find our way to proof--and, just as importantly, of how to go forward when supposed facts falter.

Adam Kucharski is a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, where he works on analysis of infectious disease outbreaks, work that won him the 2023 Adams Prize for mathematics. He regularly appears in print and broadcast media and is the author of The Perfect Bet and The Rules of Contagion. He lives in Hertfordshire, UK.