xgenius: expected goals and the science of winning football matches

’Eye-opening. An essential read for any football fan’ - Jamie Carragher

xGenius takes a tour of the world’s most pioneering football clubs, uncovering how elite teams are using xG to win more matches. Any club not adopting this model will be left behind.

The concept of Expected Goals - or xG - has changed how we understand football. Every fan will have heard of xG, many will understand what it is, but few will know exactly how it’s being used by football teams to improve their chances of winning matches.

xGenius explores the interplay between analysis, tactics and decision-making. It seeks to put the sport of football under the microscope with the aim of getting closer to the ultimate truth of what makes players, managers and teams successful. What, ultimately, wins matches.

The book looks at the model which every club should adopt, one which has allowed teams like Liverpool, Arsenal, Brighton and Brentford to punch well above their financial weight. It starts with the owners, who are restructuring their clubs to allow advanced analytics to come to the fore.

We then knock on the door of the manager’s office. Head coaches are developing new tactics and strategies based on xG insights. Crosses are bad, set pieces are undervalued and a very specific type of chance creation has emerged supreme.

Recruitment is perhaps the most important application of xG. Would you rather sign a striker who’s scored 10 goals from 20.00(xG), or 20 goals from 10.00(xG)? How was xG utilised to sign the most fearsome attacking front three in Premier League history?

Players, themselves, are being trained to calibrate subconscious xG models in their heads, which has led to shot distances across Europe plummeting. Expected Goals is changing the way the game is played out on the pitch.

xGenius shows how top-level football analysis is being carried out by the very best in the business. The insights explored in this book will change the way you watch football.

James Tippett is a Sports Partnerships Manager at Oddschecker and WhoScored and previously worked as a football analyst at Smartodds, a betting consultancy founded and run by Brentford FC owner Matthew Benham. He is the author of The Expected Goals Philosophy.@xGPhilosophy / @JamesTippett