Der-Yuan Yang

Unit 1 Analysts vs Orangutans

Many people believe that financial consultants are the experts in picking winning stocks, and that making money in the financial industry is a highly technical and overly-complex task reserved exclusively for the stock wizards. Indeed, for those outside the industry the market is

difficult to understand. Even after decades, no one seems to be able to decipher the market and beat it.

The truth is that no one—not even the professional analyst or the self-proclaimed prodigy—truly understands how to make money via the market, and no one has ever had any clue about what is going to happen on the market. The following story will show you why. A San Francisco Chronicle article indicated that an orangutan named Jolyn living in Vallejo, California was asked to select a list of stocks. Eight professional analysts also did the same at the beginning of the year, and compared the performance of their stock picks at the year end.

The results showed that Jolyn beat the investment advisers as often as they beat her. The implication is that hiring professional analysts to get their advice may not be worth the money. Can the stock market be predicted? This is a question everyone is asking and no one has yet answered. Burton Malkiel once said “A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.” As the article of San Francisco Chronicle has shown, Malkiel’s statement seems to be true.

Vocabulary

analyst (n.) 分析師。在台灣要當分析師，必須通過證照考試。在美國，正式的分析師有理財規劃師（Certified Financial Planner,CFP）及特許財務分析師（Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA）。除非有以上證照，否則不具正式分析師資格。

blindfolded (adj.) 蒙住眼睛的

dart (n.) 飛鏢（throw, lob, or toss a dart：射飛鏢）

decade (n.) 十年（decades：數十年）

decipher (v.) 解讀；辨識（尤指困難之事或物）

exclusively (adv.) 僅僅；獨佔地，專用

expert (n.) 專家。專家具備的則是專業知識（expertise）。

financial consultant (n.) 理財顧問，金融顧問

financial industry (n.) 金融業（包含銀行、保險、票券、證券等行業）

orangutan (n.) 紅毛猩猩

overly-complex (adj.) 過度複雜，非常複雜

performance (n.) 績效；表現；表演（在財經英文的用法中，通常指績效，也就是獲利。）

prodigy (n.) 天才；神童

professional (adj.) 專業的 (n.) 專業人士

reserve (v.) 保留（make a reservation：訂位）

self-proclaimed (adj.) 自我宣稱的

stock (n.) 股票（也可以稱作 share 或 equity）。股東為 stockholder或shareholder，股本為stockholders’equity，股東會為stockholders’meeting，董事會 the board of directors。

via (prep.) 經由，憑藉

wizard (n.) 巫師；高手，奇才。另一個類似的字是 geek。nerd 則是指書呆子型的人。

Unit 1 Analysts vs Orangutans

Many people believe that financial consultants are the experts in picking winning stocks, and that making money in the financial industry is a highly technical and overly-complex task reserved exclusively for the stock wizards. Indeed, for those outside the industry the market is

difficult to understand. Even after decades, no one seems to be able to decipher the market and beat it.

The truth is that no one—not even the professional analyst or the self-proclaime...

導讀：英文字義何其多 11

Unit 1 Analysts vs Orangutans 13
分析師決戰紅毛猩猩
Unit 2 More Contests between Analysts and Monkeys 17
人猴大戰續集
Unit 3 Mobile Money 24
行動貨幣
Unit 4 The Impact of Mobile Money 29
行動貨幣之影響
Unit 5 The Operation of the Stock Market 35
股市運作
Unit 6 High-Frequency Trading 42
高頻率交易
Unit 7 The Impact of High-Frequency Trading 46
高頻率交易之影響
Unit 8 Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble 53
牛頓與南海泡沫
Unit 9 John Law, Mississippi Bubble, and John Maynard Keynes 57
勞約翰、密西西比泡沫與凱因斯
Unit 10 The Sun, the Moon, and Stock Returns 63
太陽、月亮、股票報酬率
Unit 11 A Portfolio Strategy to Weather the Storm of Business Cycles 67
克服景氣循環風暴的投資組合策略
Unit 12 The Market for Lemons: Information Asymmetry and
the Agency Problem 75
檸檬市場：資訊不對稱及代理問題
Unit 13 The Short Lifespan of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) 82
短命的長期資本管理公司（LTCM）
Unit 14 The Saga of Two Giant Investment Banks:Bear Stearns and
Lehman Brothers 88
兩大投資銀行的艱辛歷程：貝爾斯登與雷曼兄弟
Unit 15 Amaranth Advisors 95
不凋之花投資顧問有限公司
Unit 16 The Blunders of Rogue Trader Nick Leeson and the Fall of Barings 99
惡棍交易員尼克．李森作的蠢事和霸菱集團的沒落
Unit 17 The Notorious Japanese Corporate Culture: On the Cases of
Daiwa Bank and Sumitomo 104
惡名昭彰的日本公司文化：大和銀行及住友
Unit 18 Episodes during the Great Recession and the Internet Era 111
大衰退及網路時代的事件
Unit 19 Economic Policies: Monetary and Fiscal 116
經濟政策：貨幣與財政
Unit 20 Financial Crises and the Precarious Nature of Banking 123
金融危機與銀行業的不穩定本質
Unit 21 The Agency Problem Revisited: the Missing Built-in Checks 130
再論代理問題：失落的內建監控
Unit 22 Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction 135
大規模毀滅性金融武器
Unit 23 Dealing with the Aftermath 141
處理善後
Unit 24 Eurodollars and Eurobonds 147
境外美元與境外債券
Unit 25 Trade Policy 151
貿易政策

後記：翻譯知多少 159

導讀：英文字義何其多 11

Unit 1 Analysts vs Orangutans 13
分析師決戰紅毛猩猩
Unit 2 More Contests between Analysts and Monkeys 17
人猴大戰續集
Unit 3 Mobile Money 24
行動貨幣
Unit 4 The Impact of Mobile Money 29
行動貨幣之影響
Unit 5 The Operation of the Stock Market 35
股市運作
Unit 6 High-Frequency Trading 42
高頻率交易
Unit 7 The Impact of High-Frequency Trading 46
高頻率交易之影響
Unit 8 Isaac Newton and...